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Grobničan Čavle vs Jadran LP — Second NL 2022

Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Jadran LP
Jadran LP
2/22/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 16Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Grobničan Čavle35%
×Draw25%
Jadran LP39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grobničan Čavle
1.35
Jadran LP
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Grobničan Čavle
1.78
Jadran LP
1.38

allows per match

Grobničan Čavle
1.48
Jadran LP
0.93

finishing

Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par
Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobničan Čavle ↓

Jadran LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Grobničan Čavle or draw
61%
Grobničan Čavle or Jadran LP
75%
Draw or Jadran LP
65%

Winning margin

Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
16%
Jadran LP wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
74%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
39%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
15%
Jadran LP 1+ goals
76%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
42%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
48%
Jadran LP (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobničan Čavle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.78 + Jadran LP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.35

Jadran LP attack 1.38 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grobničan Čavle scores more
35%
level
25%
Jadran LP scores more
39%

Jadran LP at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grobničan Čavle vs Jadran LP

Jadran LP beat Grobničan Čavle 4-0 in Second NL on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba in Čavle.