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Grobničan Čavle vs Belišće — Second NL 2022

Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Belišće
Belišće
A. Galesic 57'
F. Bosancic 54'
B. Kovacevic 44'
D. Pilcic 40'
F. Batarelo 2'
F. Milic 90+2'
4/21/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 24Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Grobničan Čavle56%
×Draw21%
Belišće23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grobničan Čavle
2.09
Belišće
1.27

Grobničan Čavle creates 65% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Grobničan Čavle
1.78
Belišće
1.07

allows per match

Grobničan Čavle
1.48
Belišće
2.40

finishing

Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par
Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobničan Čavle ↓

Belišće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Grobničan Čavle or draw
77%
Grobničan Čavle or Belišće
79%
Draw or Belišće
44%

Winning margin

Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
34%
Belišće wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
88%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
62%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
34%
Belišće 1+ goals
72%
Belišće 2+ goals
36%
Belišće 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
71%
Belišće (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobničan Čavle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.78 + Belišće defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.09

Belišće attack 1.07 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Grobničan Čavle scores more
56%
level
21%
Belišće scores more
23%

Grobničan Čavle at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Grobničan Čavle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
F. Batarelo
40'
D. Pilcic
44'
B. Kovacevic
54'
F. Bosancic
57'
A. Galesic
90+2'
F. Milic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Grobničan Čavle 5–1 Belišće

Grobničan Čavle beat Belišće 5-1 in Second NL on April 21, 2023.

Goals: F. Batarelo (2'), D. Pilcic (40'), B. Kovacevic (44'), F. Bosancic (54'), A. Galesic (57'), F. Milic (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba in Čavle.