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Grobiņa vs New Project — 1. Liga 2026

Grobiņa
Grobiņa
FT
3 – 1
New Project
New Project
7/27/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 13Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums (Liepāja)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Grobiņa76%
×Draw14%
New Project11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grobiņa
3.07
New Project
1.10

Grobiņa creates 179% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 14 away

creates per match

Grobiņa
3.21
New Project
0.86

allows per match

Grobiņa
1.34
New Project
2.93

finishing

Grobiņa+0.00on par
New Project+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobiņa ↓

New Project →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Grobiņa or draw
89%
Grobiņa or New Project
86%
Draw or New Project
24%

Winning margin

Grobiņa wins by 2+
56%
New Project wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Grobiņa 1+ goals
95%
Grobiņa 2+ goals
80%
Grobiņa 3+ goals
58%
New Project 1+ goals
67%
New Project 2+ goals
30%
New Project 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Grobiņa (draw refunded)
88%
New Project (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobiņa at home — creates 3.21, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

New Project away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobiņa attack 3.21 + New Project defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 3.07

New Project attack 0.86 + Grobiņa defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Grobiņa scores more
76%
level
14%
New Project scores more
11%

Grobiņa at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Grobiņa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Grobiņa 3–1 New Project

Grobiņa beat New Project 3-1 in 1. Liga on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums (Liepāja).