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Grobiņa vs Lokomotiv Daugavpils — 1. Liga 2026

Grobiņa
Grobiņa
FT
2 – 2
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
A. Stankus 62'
D. Dobrecovs 9'
V. Zalaks 45+1'
M. Andreev 37' (pen)
8/1/20201. Liga1. Liga · Round 5Grobiņas stadionā

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Grobiņa36%
×Draw19%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grobiņa
2.16
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
2.42

Lokomotiv Daugavpils creates 12% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 6 away

creates per match

Grobiņa
3.15
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
3.50

allows per match

Grobiņa
1.35
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
1.17

finishing

Grobiņa+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Daugavpils+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobiņa ↓

Lokomotiv Daugavpils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Grobiņa or draw
55%
Grobiņa or Lokomotiv Daugavpils
81%
Draw or Lokomotiv Daugavpils
64%

Winning margin

Grobiņa wins by 2+
20%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Grobiņa 1+ goals
88%
Grobiņa 2+ goals
63%
Grobiņa 3+ goals
36%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 1+ goals
91%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2+ goals
69%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Grobiņa (draw refunded)
44%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobiņa at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.35 · 52 matches

Lokomotiv Daugavpils away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobiņa attack 3.15 + Lokomotiv Daugavpils defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.16

Lokomotiv Daugavpils attack 3.50 + Grobiņa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Grobiņa scores more
36%
level
19%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils scores more
45%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
D. Dobrecovs
37'
M. AndreevPenalty
45+1'
V. Zalaks
62'
A. Stankus

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grobiņa vs Lokomotiv Daugavpils

Grobiņa and Lokomotiv Daugavpils drew 2-2 in 1. Liga on August 1, 2020.

Goals: D. Dobrecovs (9'), M. Andreev (37' pen), V. Zalaks (45+1'), A. Stankus (62').

The match was played at Grobiņas stadionā in Grobiņa.