Grobiņa 0–1 Banga: Result & Stats

Grobiņa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Banga

Cesinha 65'

1/12/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadions Zvejnieku aleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Grobiņa36%

×Draw22%

Banga42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrobiņaExpected goals in this matchBanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.85

Grobiņa

1.72

Banga

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

1.71

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Grobiņa

2.00

Banga

2.00

allows per match

Grobiņa

1.71

Banga

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grobiņa+0.00on par

Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobiņa ↓

Banga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Grobiņa or draw

58%

Grobiņa or Banga

78%

Draw or Banga

64%

Winning margin

Grobiņa wins by 2+

18%

Banga wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Grobiņa 1+ goals

82%

Grobiņa 2+ goals

51%

Grobiņa 3+ goals

25%

Banga 1+ goals

84%

Banga 2+ goals

55%

Banga 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Grobiņa (draw refunded)

47%

Banga (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobiņa at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Banga away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobiņa attack 2.00 + Banga defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Banga attack 2.00 + Grobiņa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Grobiņa scores more

36%

level

22%

Banga scores more

42%

Banga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

Cesinha

Grobiņa

Banga

Manager: Viktors Dobrecovs

Manager: David Afonso