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Grobiņa vs Balvu — 1. Liga 2026

Grobiņa
Grobiņa
FT
7 – 2
Balvu
Balvu
9/28/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 21Grobiņas stadionā (Grobiņa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Grobiņa90%
×Draw6%
Balvu4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grobiņa
4.90
Balvu
1.12

Grobiņa creates 338% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 20 away

creates per match

Grobiņa
3.21
Balvu
0.90

allows per match

Grobiņa
1.34
Balvu
6.60

finishing

Grobiņa+0.00on par
Balvu+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobiņa ↓

Balvu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (8%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Grobiņa or draw
96%
Grobiņa or Balvu
94%
Draw or Balvu
10%

Winning margin

Grobiņa wins by 2+
78%
Balvu wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Grobiņa 1+ goals
99%
Grobiņa 2+ goals
94%
Grobiņa 3+ goals
83%
Balvu 1+ goals
67%
Balvu 2+ goals
31%
Balvu 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Grobiņa (draw refunded)
96%
Balvu (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobiņa at home — creates 3.21, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Balvu away — creates 0.90, concedes 6.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobiņa attack 3.21 + Balvu defence 6.60 → ÷2 → 4.90

Balvu attack 0.90 + Grobiņa defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Grobiņa scores more
90%
level
6%
Balvu scores more
4%

Grobiņa at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Grobiņa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Grobiņa 7–2 Balvu

Grobiņa beat Balvu 7-2 in 1. Liga on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Grobiņas stadionā (Grobiņa).