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Großschwarzenlohe vs Stadeln — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Großschwarzenlohe
Großschwarzenlohe
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Stadeln
Stadeln
9/5/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 9FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Großschwarzenlohe41%
×Draw24%
Stadeln35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Großschwarzenlohe
1.56
Stadeln
1.41

Großschwarzenlohe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.00
Stadeln
0.88

allows per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.94
Stadeln
2.12

finishing

Großschwarzenlohe+0.00on par
Stadeln+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Großschwarzenlohe ↓

Stadeln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Großschwarzenlohe or draw
65%
Großschwarzenlohe or Stadeln
76%
Draw or Stadeln
59%

Winning margin

Großschwarzenlohe wins by 2+
20%
Stadeln wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Großschwarzenlohe 1+ goals
79%
Großschwarzenlohe 2+ goals
46%
Großschwarzenlohe 3+ goals
21%
Stadeln 1+ goals
76%
Stadeln 2+ goals
41%
Stadeln 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Großschwarzenlohe (draw refunded)
54%
Stadeln (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Großschwarzenlohe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Stadeln away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Großschwarzenlohe attack 1.00 + Stadeln defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.56

Stadeln attack 0.88 + Großschwarzenlohe defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Großschwarzenlohe scores more
41%
level
24%
Stadeln scores more
35%

Großschwarzenlohe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Großschwarzenlohe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Großschwarzenlohe vs Stadeln

Stadeln beat Großschwarzenlohe 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 5, 2025.

The match was played at FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1 in Wendelstein.