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Großschwarzenlohe vs Jahn Regensburg II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Großschwarzenlohe
Großschwarzenlohe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jahn Regensburg II
Jahn Regensburg II
9/19/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 11FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Großschwarzenlohe33%
×Draw23%
Jahn Regensburg II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Großschwarzenlohe
1.46
Jahn Regensburg II
1.71

Jahn Regensburg II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 69 away

creates per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.00
Jahn Regensburg II
1.48

allows per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.94
Jahn Regensburg II
1.91

finishing

Großschwarzenlohe+0.00on par
Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Großschwarzenlohe ↓

Jahn Regensburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Großschwarzenlohe or draw
56%
Großschwarzenlohe or Jahn Regensburg II
77%
Draw or Jahn Regensburg II
67%

Winning margin

Großschwarzenlohe wins by 2+
15%
Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Großschwarzenlohe 1+ goals
77%
Großschwarzenlohe 2+ goals
43%
Großschwarzenlohe 3+ goals
18%
Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals
82%
Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals
51%
Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Großschwarzenlohe (draw refunded)
43%
Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Großschwarzenlohe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Jahn Regensburg II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Großschwarzenlohe attack 1.00 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Jahn Regensburg II attack 1.48 + Großschwarzenlohe defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Großschwarzenlohe scores more
33%
level
23%
Jahn Regensburg II scores more
44%

Jahn Regensburg II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Großschwarzenlohe vs Jahn Regensburg II

Großschwarzenlohe and Jahn Regensburg II drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1 in Wendelstein.