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Großschwarzenlohe vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Großschwarzenlohe
Großschwarzenlohe
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
5/8/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 33FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Großschwarzenlohe25%
×Draw22%
Gebenbach53%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Großschwarzenlohe
1.29
Gebenbach
1.96

Gebenbach creates 52% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 69 away

creates per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.00
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.94
Gebenbach
1.59

finishing

Großschwarzenlohe+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Großschwarzenlohe ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Großschwarzenlohe or draw
47%
Großschwarzenlohe or Gebenbach
78%
Draw or Gebenbach
75%

Winning margin

Großschwarzenlohe wins by 2+
10%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Großschwarzenlohe 1+ goals
72%
Großschwarzenlohe 2+ goals
37%
Großschwarzenlohe 3+ goals
14%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
86%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
58%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Großschwarzenlohe (draw refunded)
32%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Großschwarzenlohe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Großschwarzenlohe attack 1.00 + Gebenbach defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + Großschwarzenlohe defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Großschwarzenlohe scores more
25%
level
22%
Gebenbach scores more
53%

Gebenbach at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Großschwarzenlohe vs Gebenbach

Gebenbach beat Großschwarzenlohe 3-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 8, 2026.

The match was played at FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1 in Wendelstein.