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Großschwarzenlohe vs Cham — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Großschwarzenlohe
Großschwarzenlohe
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Cham
Cham
10/18/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 15FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Großschwarzenlohe28%
×Draw24%
Cham48%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Großschwarzenlohe
1.25
Cham
1.69

Cham creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

creates per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.00
Cham
1.44

allows per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.94
Cham
1.49

finishing

Großschwarzenlohe+0.00on par
Cham+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Großschwarzenlohe ↓

Cham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Großschwarzenlohe or draw
52%
Großschwarzenlohe or Cham
76%
Draw or Cham
72%

Winning margin

Großschwarzenlohe wins by 2+
12%
Cham wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Großschwarzenlohe 1+ goals
71%
Großschwarzenlohe 2+ goals
36%
Großschwarzenlohe 3+ goals
13%
Cham 1+ goals
82%
Cham 2+ goals
50%
Cham 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Großschwarzenlohe (draw refunded)
37%
Cham (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Großschwarzenlohe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Cham away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Großschwarzenlohe attack 1.00 + Cham defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cham attack 1.44 + Großschwarzenlohe defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Großschwarzenlohe scores more
28%
level
24%
Cham scores more
48%

Cham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Großschwarzenlohe vs Cham

Cham beat Großschwarzenlohe 4-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1 in Wendelstein.