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Großschwarzenlohe vs ASV Neumarkt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Großschwarzenlohe
Großschwarzenlohe
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
9/10/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 6FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Großschwarzenlohe30%
×Draw23%
ASV Neumarkt46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Großschwarzenlohe
1.39
ASV Neumarkt
1.76

ASV Neumarkt creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 69 away

creates per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.00
ASV Neumarkt
1.58

allows per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.94
ASV Neumarkt
1.77

finishing

Großschwarzenlohe+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Großschwarzenlohe ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Großschwarzenlohe or draw
54%
Großschwarzenlohe or ASV Neumarkt
77%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
70%

Winning margin

Großschwarzenlohe wins by 2+
14%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Großschwarzenlohe 1+ goals
75%
Großschwarzenlohe 2+ goals
40%
Großschwarzenlohe 3+ goals
16%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
83%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
52%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Großschwarzenlohe (draw refunded)
40%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Großschwarzenlohe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Großschwarzenlohe attack 1.00 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Großschwarzenlohe defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Großschwarzenlohe scores more
30%
level
23%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
46%

ASV Neumarkt at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Großschwarzenlohe vs ASV Neumarkt

Großschwarzenlohe and ASV Neumarkt drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 10, 2025.

The match was played at FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1 in Wendelstein.