Großbardorf 0–0 Würzburger FV: Result & Stats

Großbardorf

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Würzburger FV

3/18/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 24BIOENERGIE-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Großbardorf41%

×Draw23%

Würzburger FV36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GroßbardorfExpected goals in this matchWürzburger FV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.60

Großbardorf

1.73

Würzburger FV

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

1.50

creates per match

1.32

1.89

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Großbardorf

1.50

Würzburger FV

1.32

allows per match

Großbardorf

1.89

Würzburger FV

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Großbardorf+0.00on par

Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Großbardorf ↓

Würzburger FV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Großbardorf or draw

64%

Großbardorf or Würzburger FV

77%

Draw or Würzburger FV

59%

Winning margin

Großbardorf wins by 2+

21%

Würzburger FV wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Großbardorf 1+ goals

82%

Großbardorf 2+ goals

52%

Großbardorf 3+ goals

25%

Würzburger FV 1+ goals

80%

Würzburger FV 2+ goals

47%

Würzburger FV 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Großbardorf (draw refunded)

54%

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Großbardorf at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.97 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Großbardorf attack 1.50 + Würzburger FV defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.73

Würzburger FV attack 1.32 + Großbardorf defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Großbardorf scores more

41%

level

23%

Würzburger FV scores more

36%

Großbardorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Großbardorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff