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Großbardorf vs 1. SC Feucht — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Großbardorf
Großbardorf
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
1. SC Feucht
1. SC Feucht
E. Reiher 69'
J. Goller 57'
X. Muller 26'
L. Rukiqi 79' (pen)
4/29/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 30BIOENERGIE-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Großbardorf48%
×Draw21%
1. SC Feucht31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Großbardorf
2.06
1. SC Feucht
1.63

Großbardorf creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

Großbardorf
1.50
1. SC Feucht
1.37

allows per match

Großbardorf
1.89
1. SC Feucht
2.63

finishing

Großbardorf+0.00on par
1. SC Feucht+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Großbardorf ↓

1. SC Feucht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Großbardorf or draw
69%
Großbardorf or 1. SC Feucht
79%
Draw or 1. SC Feucht
52%

Winning margin

Großbardorf wins by 2+
27%
1. SC Feucht wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Großbardorf 1+ goals
87%
Großbardorf 2+ goals
61%
Großbardorf 3+ goals
34%
1. SC Feucht 1+ goals
80%
1. SC Feucht 2+ goals
48%
1. SC Feucht 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Großbardorf (draw refunded)
61%
1. SC Feucht (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Großbardorf at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

1. SC Feucht away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Großbardorf attack 1.50 + 1. SC Feucht defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.06

1. SC Feucht attack 1.37 + Großbardorf defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Großbardorf scores more
48%
level
21%
1. SC Feucht scores more
31%

Großbardorf at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Großbardorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
X. Muller
57'
J. Goller
69'
E. Reiher
79'
L. RukiqiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Großbardorf 3–1 1. SC Feucht

Großbardorf beat 1. SC Feucht 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 29, 2023.

Goals: X. Muller (26'), J. Goller (57'), E. Reiher (69'), L. Rukiqi (79' pen).

The match was played at BIOENERGIE-ARENA in Großbardorf.