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Grindavik vs Selfoss — 1. Deild 2026

Grindavik
Grindavik
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Selfoss
Selfoss
7/18/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 13Vogabæjarvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Grindavik42%
×Draw23%
Selfoss35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grindavik
1.70
Selfoss
1.52

Grindavik creates 12% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

creates per match

Grindavik
1.40
Selfoss
0.83

allows per match

Grindavik
2.20
Selfoss
2.00

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par
Selfoss+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

Selfoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw
65%
Grindavik or Selfoss
77%
Draw or Selfoss
58%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+
22%
Selfoss wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals
82%
Grindavik 2+ goals
51%
Grindavik 3+ goals
24%
Selfoss 1+ goals
78%
Selfoss 2+ goals
45%
Selfoss 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)
55%
Selfoss (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

Selfoss away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.40 + Selfoss defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Selfoss attack 0.83 + Grindavik defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Grindavik scores more
42%
level
23%
Selfoss scores more
35%

Grindavik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Grindavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Grindavik 0–2 Selfoss

Selfoss beat Grindavik 2-0 in 1. Deild on July 18, 2025.

The match was played at Vogabæjarvöllur in Vogar.