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Grindavik vs Kórdrengir — 1. Deild 2018

Grindavik
Grindavik
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
8/14/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 16Mustad völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Grindavik37%
×Draw23%
Kórdrengir39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grindavik
1.59
Kórdrengir
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 22 away

creates per match

Grindavik
1.73
Kórdrengir
1.59

allows per match

Grindavik
1.68
Kórdrengir
1.45

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par
Kórdrengir+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

Kórdrengir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw
61%
Grindavik or Kórdrengir
77%
Draw or Kórdrengir
63%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+
18%
Kórdrengir wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals
80%
Grindavik 2+ goals
47%
Grindavik 3+ goals
21%
Kórdrengir 1+ goals
81%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
49%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)
49%
Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.68 · 71 matches

Kórdrengir away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.73 + Kórdrengir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kórdrengir attack 1.59 + Grindavik defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grindavik scores more
37%
level
23%
Kórdrengir scores more
39%

Kórdrengir at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kórdrengir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Grindavik 2–0 Kórdrengir

Grindavik beat Kórdrengir 2-0 in 1. Deild on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Mustad völlurinn in Grindavík.