Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grindavik vs IR Reykjavik — 1. Deild 2026

Grindavik
Grindavik
Preview
14:00
IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
7/18/20261. Deild1. Deild · Round 14
Big match
43%
IR Reykjavik
model favours
35%22%43%

85% of IR Reykjavik’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Grindavik35%
×Draw22%
IR Reykjavik43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grindavik
1.69
IR Reykjavik
1.89

IR Reykjavik creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Grindavik
1.38
IR Reykjavik
1.65

allows per match

Grindavik
2.12
IR Reykjavik
2.00

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par
IR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

IR Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw
57%
Grindavik or IR Reykjavik
78%
Draw or IR Reykjavik
65%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+
17%
IR Reykjavik wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals
82%
Grindavik 2+ goals
50%
Grindavik 3+ goals
24%
IR Reykjavik 1+ goals
85%
IR Reykjavik 2+ goals
56%
IR Reykjavik 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)
45%
IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

IR Reykjavik away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.38 + IR Reykjavik defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

IR Reykjavik attack 1.65 + Grindavik defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grindavik scores more
35%
level
22%
IR Reykjavik scores more
43%

IR Reykjavik at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IR Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Grindavik score first in only 26% of matches
  • IR Reykjavik score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4.6 goals
  • 22% of Grindavik’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Grindavik
WLDDD
Reykjavik
LDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grindavik vs IR Reykjavik — Match Preview

Grindavik face IR Reykjavik on July 18, 2026 in this 1. Deild fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.