Grindavik 3–1 IR Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Grindavik

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

IR Reykjavik

M. Gavilan 54'

A. Robertsson 43', 33'

R. Punyed 21'

9/6/2025

1. Deild · Round 21Stakkavíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Grindavik35%

×Draw22%

IR Reykjavik43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrindavikExpected goals in this matchIR Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.89

Grindavik

1.69

IR Reykjavik

1.89

IR Reykjavik creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

1.38

creates per match

1.65

2.12

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Grindavik

1.38

IR Reykjavik

1.65

allows per match

Grindavik

2.12

IR Reykjavik

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par

IR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

IR Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw

57%

Grindavik or IR Reykjavik

78%

Draw or IR Reykjavik

65%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+

17%

IR Reykjavik wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals

82%

Grindavik 2+ goals

50%

Grindavik 3+ goals

24%

IR Reykjavik 1+ goals

85%

IR Reykjavik 2+ goals

56%

IR Reykjavik 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)

45%

IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

IR Reykjavik away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.38 + IR Reykjavik defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

IR Reykjavik attack 1.65 + Grindavik defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grindavik scores more

35%

level

22%

IR Reykjavik scores more

43%

IR Reykjavik at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IR Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

21'

33'

43'

46'

A. Kostic← M. McAusland

50'

V. Hauksson

52'

D. Nieblas

54'

M. Gavilan

57'

I. Sigurdsson← I. Sigurdsson

61'

E. Sigurhjartarson← E. Sigurhjartarson

61'

R. Punyed← R. Punyed

61'

B. Helgason← B. Helgason

78'

B. Baldursson← B. Baldursson

78'

B. Hermannsson← B. Hermannsson

85'

T. Sanniez

89'

A. Heimisson

90+2'

M. Gavilan← M. Gavilan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff