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Grindavik vs Grotta — 1. Deild 2026

Grindavik
Grindavik
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Grotta
Grotta
5/20/20241. Deild1. Deild · Round 3Stakkavíkurvöllur-Safamýri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Grindavik42%
×Draw22%
Grotta36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grindavik
1.85
Grotta
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

creates per match

Grindavik
1.50
Grotta
1.29

allows per match

Grindavik
2.14
Grotta
2.21

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par
Grotta+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

Grotta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw
64%
Grindavik or Grotta
78%
Draw or Grotta
58%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+
22%
Grotta wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals
84%
Grindavik 2+ goals
55%
Grindavik 3+ goals
28%
Grotta 1+ goals
82%
Grotta 2+ goals
51%
Grotta 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)
53%
Grotta (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

Grotta away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.50 + Grotta defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.85

Grotta attack 1.29 + Grindavik defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Grindavik scores more
42%
level
22%
Grotta scores more
36%

Grindavik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Grindavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grindavik vs Grotta

Grindavik and Grotta drew 2-2 in 1. Deild on May 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stakkavíkurvöllur-Safamýri in Reykjavík.