Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grimsby vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
Preview
15:00
Walsall
Walsall
3/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 35Blundell Park
Big match
40%
Grimsby
model favours
40%25%35%

Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Grimsby40%
×Draw25%
Walsall35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.46
Walsall
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.62
Walsall
1.85

allows per match

Grimsby
0.85
Walsall
1.29

finishing

Grimsby+0.38scores more
Walsall-0.03on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
65%
Grimsby or Walsall
75%
Draw or Walsall
60%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
19%
Walsall wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
77%
Grimsby 2+ goals
43%
Grimsby 3+ goals
18%
Walsall 1+ goals
74%
Walsall 2+ goals
39%
Walsall 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
53%
Walsall (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Walsall defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Walsall attack 1.85 + Grimsby defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grimsby scores more
40%
level
25%
Walsall scores more
35%

Grimsby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Grimsby play Attack-heavy, Walsall Direct / counter-attacking

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
52%PossessionBiggest gap43%
68%Pass accuracy64%
12.6Shots11.8
1.65xG1.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GrimsbyWalsall

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Grimsby
4
Draws
3
Walsall
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 80%
2–21–03–11–41–6

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grimsby
DDWLD
Walsall
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grimsby face Walsall (League Two)

League Two returns with Grimsby hosting Walsall. Match starts March 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Grimsby host Walsall at Blundell Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.