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Grimsby vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
B. Morris 18'
D. Daniels 50'
3/25/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 38Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Grimsby41%
×Draw25%
Walsall34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.46
Walsall
1.30

Grimsby creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.72
Walsall
1.78

allows per match

Grimsby
0.82
Walsall
1.20

finishing

Grimsby+0.20scores more
Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
66%
Grimsby or Walsall
75%
Draw or Walsall
59%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
20%
Walsall wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
77%
Grimsby 2+ goals
43%
Grimsby 3+ goals
18%
Walsall 1+ goals
73%
Walsall 2+ goals
37%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
55%
Walsall (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 12 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.72 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Walsall attack 1.78 + Grimsby defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Grimsby scores more
41%
level
25%
Walsall scores more
34%

Grimsby at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. McAteeGrimsbyGrimsby · F
7.7

Match Events

18'
B. Morris
38'
Oisin McEntee
46'
H. White← B. Comley
46'
A. Williams← J. Maddox
49'
Niall Maher
50'
D. Daniels
60'
Hayden White
60'
Owen Evans
73'
Andy Smith
81'
Bryn Morris
85'
Kieran Green
85'
O. Khan← G. Lloyd
86'
M. Stevens← C. Wilkinson
88'
Daniel Amos
90+4'
Donervon Daniels

Possession

53%Grimsby

Shots

22Grimsby

Pass accuracy

54%Grimsby

Statistics

GrimsbyWalsall
Overview
53%Possession47%
22Total Shots10
2Corners8
17Fouls14
Shots
22Total Shots10
4On Target1
11Off Target4
7Blocked5
12Inside Box8
10Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
284Total Passes247
174Accurate Passes131
61%Pass Accuracy53%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls14
5Yellow Cards4
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Grimsby vs Walsall

Grimsby and Walsall drew 1-1 in League Two on March 25, 2023.

Goals: B. Morris (18'), D. Daniels (50').

Grimsby controlled possession (53%) and registered 22 shots to 10.

The match was played at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire.