Grimsby 0–0 Tranmere: Result & Stats | League Two

Grimsby

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tranmere

3/17/2021

League Two · Round 29Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Grimsby51%

×Draw25%

Tranmere24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.98

Grimsby

1.57

Tranmere

0.98

Grimsby creates 60% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.72

creates per match

1.15

0.82

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Grimsby

1.72

Tranmere

1.15

allows per match

Grimsby

0.82

Tranmere

1.42

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Grimsby+0.20scores more

Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

76%

Grimsby or Tranmere

75%

Draw or Tranmere

49%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

27%

Tranmere wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

79%

Grimsby 2+ goals

46%

Grimsby 3+ goals

21%

Tranmere 1+ goals

62%

Tranmere 2+ goals

26%

Tranmere 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

68%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 12 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.72 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.57

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Grimsby defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Grimsby scores more

51%

level

25%

Tranmere scores more

24%

Grimsby at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

L. Hendrie

Grimsby · D

7.5

Match Events

8'

Julien Lamy

47'

Corey Taylor

53'

I. Jackson← Filipe Morais

55'

60'

71'

77'

78'

A. Crawford← D. Nugent

87'

E. Monthe← L. Feeney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrimsbyTranmere

Overview

38%Possession62%

11Total Shots8

3Corners7

16Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target1

7Off Target4

1Blocked3

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box1

Passing

38%Possession62%

293Total Passes442

164Accurate Passes295

56%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1