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Grimsby vs Sutton Utd — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
8/20/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Grimsby43%
×Draw26%
Sutton Utd31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.48
Sutton Utd
1.21

Grimsby creates 22% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 69 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.23
Sutton Utd
1.12

allows per match

Grimsby
1.30
Sutton Utd
1.74

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
69%
Grimsby or Sutton Utd
74%
Draw or Sutton Utd
57%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
21%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
77%
Grimsby 2+ goals
43%
Grimsby 3+ goals
19%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
70%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
34%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
58%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 158 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.23 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Grimsby defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grimsby scores more
43%
level
26%
Sutton Utd scores more
31%

Grimsby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grimsby vs Sutton Utd

Grimsby and Sutton Utd drew 0-0 in League Two on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire.