Grimsby 1–0 Stockport County: Result & Stats

Grimsby

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stockport County

1/1/2023

League Two · Round 25Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Grimsby30%

×Draw25%

Stockport County45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchStockport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.51

Grimsby

1.18

Stockport County

1.51

Stockport County creates 28% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 47 away

1.23

creates per match

1.72

1.30

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Grimsby

1.23

Stockport County

1.72

allows per match

Grimsby

1.30

Stockport County

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par

Stockport County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Stockport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

55%

Grimsby or Stockport County

75%

Draw or Stockport County

70%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

12%

Stockport County wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

69%

Grimsby 2+ goals

33%

Grimsby 3+ goals

12%

Stockport County 1+ goals

78%

Stockport County 2+ goals

44%

Stockport County 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

40%

Stockport County (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 158 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.23 + Stockport County defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Stockport County attack 1.72 + Grimsby defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Grimsby scores more

30%

level

25%

Stockport County scores more

45%

Stockport County at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff