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Grimsby vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
Preview
14:00
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
10/3/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Blundell Park
52%
Grimsby
model favours
52%27%21%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Grimsby52%
×Draw27%
Shrewsbury21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.42
Shrewsbury
0.79

Grimsby creates 80% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.62
Shrewsbury
0.74

allows per match

Grimsby
0.85
Shrewsbury
1.21

finishing

Grimsby+0.38scores more
Shrewsbury-0.07on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
79%
Grimsby or Shrewsbury
73%
Draw or Shrewsbury
48%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
26%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
76%
Grimsby 2+ goals
41%
Grimsby 3+ goals
17%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
55%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
19%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
71%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.21 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Shrewsbury defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Shrewsbury attack 0.74 + Grimsby defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grimsby scores more
52%
level
27%
Shrewsbury scores more
21%

Grimsby at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shrewsbury raise their game against the top half — 29% wins vs the upper half, only 27% vs the lower
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches
  • Style contrast — Grimsby play Attack-heavy, Shrewsbury Direct / counter-attacking
  • Grimsby sit 6, Shrewsbury 19 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
52%Possession43%
68%Pass accuracy59%
12.6Shots11.2
1.65xGBiggest gap0.89
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GrimsbyShrewsbury

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grimsby
DDWLD
Shrewsbury
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grimsby vs Shrewsbury — Match Preview

Grimsby face Shrewsbury on October 3, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Grimsby host Shrewsbury at Blundell Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.