Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grimsby vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Grimsby
Grimsby
Preview
18:45
Port Vale
Port Vale
4/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 41Blundell Park
Big match
44%
Grimsby
model favours
44%25%30%

Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Grimsby44%
×Draw25%
Port Vale30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.54
Port Vale
1.23

Grimsby creates 25% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 10 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.57
Port Vale
1.00

allows per match

Grimsby
1.46
Port Vale
1.50

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
70%
Grimsby or Port Vale
75%
Draw or Port Vale
56%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
22%
Port Vale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
79%
Grimsby 2+ goals
45%
Grimsby 3+ goals
20%
Port Vale 1+ goals
71%
Port Vale 2+ goals
35%
Port Vale 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
59%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.57 + Port Vale defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Port Vale attack 1.00 + Grimsby defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grimsby scores more
44%
level
25%
Port Vale scores more
30%

Grimsby at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
Port Vale
Balanced
53%Possession50%
67%Pass accuracy66%
12.3ShotsBiggest gap11.1
1.69xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GrimsbyPort Vale

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Grimsby
2
Draws
1
Port Vale
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 40%
2–23–01–11–00–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grimsby
DWLDW
Vale
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grimsby vs Port Vale — Match Preview

Grimsby face Port Vale on April 13, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Grimsby host Port Vale at Blundell Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.