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Grimsby vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Grimsby
Grimsby
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
J. Svanþórsson 90+2'
D. Tharme 81'
C. McJannet 29'
12/29/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 23Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Grimsby36%
×Draw25%
Port Vale39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.38
Port Vale
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.57
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Grimsby
1.46
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
61%
Grimsby or Port Vale
75%
Draw or Port Vale
64%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
16%
Port Vale wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
75%
Grimsby 2+ goals
40%
Grimsby 3+ goals
16%
Port Vale 1+ goals
76%
Port Vale 2+ goals
42%
Port Vale 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
48%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.57 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Grimsby defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grimsby scores more
36%
level
25%
Port Vale scores more
39%

Port Vale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
C. McJannetGrimsbyGrimsby · D
9.0

Match Events

15'
Jesse Debrah
29'
C. McJannet↳ J. Davies
46'
K. John← J. Shorrock
50'
T. Warren← L. Cass
60'
R. Curtis← R. Richards
61'
J. Svanþórsson← C. Ainley
71'
Jordan Davies
75'
K. Green← J. Davies
76'
D. Tharme← J. Luker
81'
D. Tharme↳ D. Hume
82'
L. Tolaj← M. Clark
90+2'
J. Svanþórsson

Possession

43%Grimsby

Shots

15Grimsby

Pass accuracy

47%Grimsby

Statistics

GrimsbyPort
Overview
43%Possession57%
15Total Shots12
7Corners4
11Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots12
8On Target2
3Off Target7
4Blocked3
11Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
43%Possession57%
245Total Passes341
165Accurate Passes256
67%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Grimsby vs Port Vale

Grimsby beat Port Vale 3-0 in League Two on December 29, 2024.

Goals: C. McJannet (29'), D. Tharme (81'), J. Svanþórsson (90+2').

Port Vale controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire.