Grimsby 5–2 Port Vale: Result & Stats | League Two

Grimsby

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Port Vale

J. Hanson 86'

L. Waterfall 80'

M. Green 57'

M. Ogbu 51'

J. Cook 20'

N. Smith 62'

E. Whitehouse 13' (OG)

8/24/2019

League Two · Round 5Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Grimsby36%

×Draw27%

Port Vale37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.23

Grimsby

1.20

Port Vale

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 158 home / 118 away

1.23

creates per match

1.16

1.30

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Grimsby

1.23

Port Vale

1.16

allows per match

Grimsby

1.30

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

63%

Grimsby or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

64%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

15%

Port Vale wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

70%

Grimsby 2+ goals

34%

Grimsby 3+ goals

12%

Port Vale 1+ goals

71%

Port Vale 2+ goals

35%

Port Vale 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

49%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 158 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.23 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Grimsby defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Grimsby scores more

36%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

37%

Port Vale at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

E. WhitehouseOwn goal

20'

J. Cook↳ M. Ogbu

46'

51'

55'

57'

57'

60'

62'

66'

72'

73'

78'

R. Campbell-Gordon← D. Worrall

80'

L. Waterfall↳ E. Hewitt

82'

M. Wright← E. Whitehouse

86'

J. Hanson↳ M. Wright

90'

E. Hewitt

Grimsby

Port

1

Brown

5

Legge

15

⚽

Smith

2

Gibbons

3

Crookes

7

▼

Worrall

4

Joyce

19

Amoo

22

▼

Lloyd

10

Conlon

21

▼

Bennett

1

McKeown

6

⚽

Waterfall

4

▼

Davis

2

Hendrie

22

A

Hewitt

11

⚽

Cook

10

🥅

▼

Whitehous

8

Hessentha

7

⚽

▼

Green

9

⚽A

Hanson

20

⚽A

Ogbu

Manager: M. Jolley

46'▲M. Pollock←▼H. Davis

60'▲H. Clifton←▼M. Green

82'▲M. Wright←▼E. Whitehouse

Grimsby substitutes

25Pollock15Clifton19Wright18Vernam21Ring17Cardwell23Russell

Manager: J. Askey

57'▲M. Cullen←▼R. Lloyd

66'▲T. Pope←▼R. Bennett

78'▲R. Campbell-Gordon←▼D. Worrall

Port Vale substitutes

13Cullen9Pope23Campbell-Gordon30Maddison6Kennedy18Evans20Burgess

Match Recap: Grimsby vs Port Vale

Grimsby beat Port Vale 5-2 in League Two on August 24, 2019.

Goals: E. Whitehouse (13' o.g.), J. Cook (20'), M. Ogbu (51'), M. Green (57'), N. Smith (62'), L. Waterfall (80'), J. Hanson (86').

The match was played at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire.

Grimsby vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Grimsby vs Port Vale