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Grimsby vs Milton Keynes Dons — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
1/26/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 30Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Grimsby42%
×Draw27%
Milton Keynes Dons30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.10

Grimsby creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.76
Milton Keynes Dons
1.24

allows per match

Grimsby
0.97
Milton Keynes Dons
0.94

finishing

Grimsby+0.84scores more
Milton Keynes Dons+0.59scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
70%
Grimsby or Milton Keynes Dons
73%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
58%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
20%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
74%
Grimsby 2+ goals
39%
Grimsby 3+ goals
15%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
67%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
30%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
58%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.97 · 5 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.76 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.35

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.24 + Grimsby defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Grimsby scores more
42%
level
27%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
30%

Grimsby at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Grimsby 1–0 Milton Keynes Dons

Grimsby beat Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 in League Two on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Blundell Park in Grimsby.