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Grimsby vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gillingham
Gillingham
1/28/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 29Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Grimsby41%
×Draw28%
Gillingham31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.29
Gillingham
1.07

Grimsby creates 21% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 92 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.23
Gillingham
0.84

allows per match

Grimsby
1.30
Gillingham
1.36

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
69%
Grimsby or Gillingham
72%
Draw or Gillingham
59%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
19%
Gillingham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
72%
Grimsby 2+ goals
37%
Grimsby 3+ goals
14%
Gillingham 1+ goals
66%
Gillingham 2+ goals
29%
Gillingham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
57%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 158 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.23 + Gillingham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gillingham attack 0.84 + Grimsby defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Grimsby scores more
41%
level
28%
Gillingham scores more
31%

Grimsby at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grimsby vs Gillingham

Grimsby and Gillingham drew 1-1 in League Two on January 28, 2025.

The match was played at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire.