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Grimsby vs Forest Green — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Forest Green
Forest Green
3/2/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 36Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Grimsby34%
×Draw26%
Forest Green40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.23
Forest Green
1.36

Forest Green creates 11% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 113 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.23
Forest Green
1.42

allows per match

Grimsby
1.30
Forest Green
1.22

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
60%
Grimsby or Forest Green
74%
Draw or Forest Green
66%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
14%
Forest Green wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
71%
Grimsby 2+ goals
35%
Grimsby 3+ goals
13%
Forest Green 1+ goals
74%
Forest Green 2+ goals
39%
Forest Green 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
46%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 158 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.22 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.23 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Forest Green attack 1.42 + Grimsby defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grimsby scores more
34%
level
26%
Forest Green scores more
40%

Forest Green at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grimsby vs Forest Green

Grimsby beat Forest Green 1-0 in League Two on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire.