Grimsby vs Crewe — League Two 2018
Crewe score first in only 19% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 8+ matches
Grimsby48%
Crewe27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Grimsby creates 43% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Grimsby ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Grimsby at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches
Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Grimsby attack 1.62 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53
Crewe attack 1.30 + Grimsby defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Grimsby at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Contrasting stylesHead-to-head
9 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Notts County
Bromley
Milton Keynes Dons
Salford City
Cambridge UnitedGrimsby
Chesterfield
Barnet
Swindon Town
OldhamCrewe
Colchester
Walsall
Bristol Rovers
Fleetwood Town
Accrington ST
Gillingham
Cheltenham
Shrewsbury
Newport County
Tranmere
Crawley Town
Harrogate Town
BarrowIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Grimsby host Crewe on Saturday, 1 May 2027 at 14:00. The match is part of the League Two 2018/2019 season.
Grimsby face Crewe (League Two)
League Two returns with Grimsby hosting Crewe. Match starts May 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Grimsby host Crewe at Blundell Park.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.