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Crewe vs Grimsby — League Two 2021

Crewe
Crewe
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Grimsby
Grimsby
M. Demetriou 90+3'
C. Long 14'
4/1/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 40Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Crewe40%
×Draw26%
Grimsby34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.39
Grimsby
1.25

Crewe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 98 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.41
Grimsby
1.24

allows per match

Crewe
1.27
Grimsby
1.36

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
66%
Crewe or Grimsby
74%
Draw or Grimsby
60%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
19%
Grimsby wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
75%
Crewe 2+ goals
40%
Crewe 3+ goals
16%
Grimsby 1+ goals
71%
Grimsby 2+ goals
36%
Grimsby 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
54%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.41 + Grimsby defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Grimsby attack 1.24 + Crewe defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more
40%
level
26%
Grimsby scores more
34%

Crewe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
M. DemetriouCreweCrewe · D
8.9

Match Events

14'
C. Long↳ M. Demetriou
31'
Mickey Demetriou
38'
Jayden Luker
46'
M. Sanders← M. Holíček
57'
George McEachran
58'
Ryan Cooney
60'
C. Thompson← G. McEachran
60'
C. McJannet← T. Warren
62'
Harvey Rodgers
71'
J. Davies← J. Luker
77'
C. Agius← C. Long
82'
D. Burns← L. Barrington
87'
Calum Agius
87'
Jack Lankester
90+1'
L. Billington← R. Cooney
90+7'
J. Knight-Lebel← O. Bogle
90+1'
K. Hemmings← J. Lankester
90+3'
M. Demetriou↳ T. Lowery

Possession

53%Crewe

Shots

11Crewe

Pass accuracy

51%Crewe

Statistics

CreweGrimsby
Overview
53%Possession47%
11Total Shots10
2Corners4
18Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots10
4On Target3
5Off Target5
2Blocked2
4Inside Box7
7Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
263Total Passes230
172Accurate Passes142
65%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls16
4Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Crewe 2 – 0 Grimsby

Crewe beat Grimsby 2-0 in League Two on April 1, 2025.

Goals: C. Long (14'), M. Demetriou (90+3').

Crewe controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.