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Grimsby vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
12/9/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 21Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Grimsby54%
×Draw24%
Crewe21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.70
Crewe
0.97

Grimsby creates 75% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.76
Crewe
0.97

allows per match

Grimsby
0.97
Crewe
1.64

finishing

Grimsby+0.84scores more
Crewe+0.03on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
79%
Grimsby or Crewe
76%
Draw or Crewe
46%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
30%
Crewe wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
82%
Grimsby 2+ goals
51%
Grimsby 3+ goals
24%
Crewe 1+ goals
62%
Crewe 2+ goals
25%
Crewe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
72%
Crewe (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.97 · 5 matches

Crewe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.64 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.76 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.70

Crewe attack 0.97 + Grimsby defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Grimsby scores more
54%
level
24%
Crewe scores more
21%

Grimsby at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Grimsby 2–1 Crewe

Grimsby beat Crewe 2-1 in League Two on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire.