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Grimsby vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
Preview
19:45
Colchester
Colchester
12/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Blundell Park
Big match
53%
Grimsby
model favours
53%25%23%
1–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Grimsby53%
×Draw25%
Colchester23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.62
Colchester
0.97

Grimsby creates 67% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.62
Colchester
1.08

allows per match

Grimsby
0.85
Colchester
1.62

finishing

Grimsby+0.38scores more
Colchester+0.19scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
77%
Grimsby or Colchester
75%
Draw or Colchester
47%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
28%
Colchester wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
80%
Grimsby 2+ goals
48%
Grimsby 3+ goals
22%
Colchester 1+ goals
62%
Colchester 2+ goals
25%
Colchester 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
70%
Colchester (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.62 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Colchester defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.62

Colchester attack 1.08 + Grimsby defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Grimsby scores more
53%
level
25%
Colchester scores more
23%

Grimsby at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
Colchester
Balanced
52%Possession50%
68%Pass accuracy71%
12.6Shots11.3
1.65xGBiggest gap1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GrimsbyColchester

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Grimsby
1
Draws
6
Colchester
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%
1–01–22–10–10–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grimsby
DDWLD
Colchester
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grimsby face Colchester (League Two)

League Two returns with Grimsby hosting Colchester. Match starts December 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Grimsby host Colchester at Blundell Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.