Colchester 1–2 Grimsby: Result & Stats | League Two

Colchester

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Grimsby

O. Edwards 51'

E. Khouri 76'

K. Green 46'

3/28/2025

League Two · Round 39JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Colchester39%

×Draw26%

Grimsby35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.27

Colchester

1.36

Grimsby

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.53

creates per match

1.67

0.87

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Colchester

1.53

Grimsby

1.67

allows per match

Colchester

0.87

Grimsby

1.20

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.14scores more

Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

65%

Colchester or Grimsby

74%

Draw or Grimsby

61%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

18%

Grimsby wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

74%

Colchester 2+ goals

39%

Colchester 3+ goals

16%

Grimsby 1+ goals

72%

Grimsby 2+ goals

36%

Grimsby 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

53%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.87 · 12 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.20 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.53 + Grimsby defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Grimsby attack 1.67 + Colchester defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colchester scores more

39%

level

26%

Grimsby scores more

35%

Colchester at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

E. Khouri

Grimsby · M

8.3

Match Events

27'

J. Gordon← H. Anderson

28'

Kieran Green

46'

K. Green↳ E. Khouri

51'

O. Edwards↳ J. Payne

76'

E. Khouri↳ L. Barrington

77'

79'

82'

84'

84'

T. Simpson← F. Kelleher

84'

K. Vincent-Young← R. Hunt

85'

O. Thorn← J. Gordon

88'

C. Thompson← G. McEachran

89'

A. Scully← A. Read

89'

J. Luker← L. Barrington

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterGrimsby

Overview

59%Possession41%

7Total Shots16

4Corners3

15Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots16

2On Target6

1Off Target5

4Blocked5

3Inside Box10

4Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

388Total Passes269

280Accurate Passes167

72%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3