Grimsby 2–3 Colchester: Result & Stats | League Two

Grimsby

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Colchester

D. Wilson 52'

O. Goodman 7' (OG)

A. Read 64'

Z. Mitchell 35'

J. Taylor 11'

10/24/2023

League Two · Round 15Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Grimsby55%

×Draw23%

Colchester21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.01

Grimsby

1.77

Colchester

1.01

Grimsby creates 75% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.72

creates per match

1.21

0.82

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Grimsby

1.72

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Grimsby

0.82

Colchester

1.81

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Grimsby+0.20scores more

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

79%

Grimsby or Colchester

77%

Draw or Colchester

45%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

31%

Colchester wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

83%

Grimsby 2+ goals

53%

Grimsby 3+ goals

26%

Colchester 1+ goals

64%

Colchester 2+ goals

27%

Colchester 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

72%

Colchester (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 12 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.72 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.77

Colchester attack 1.21 + Grimsby defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Grimsby scores more

55%

level

23%

Colchester scores more

21%

Grimsby at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Read

Colchester · M

9.5

Match Events

7'

O. GoodmanOwn goal

11'

J. Taylor↳ A. Read

22'

Zach Mitchell

35'

Z. Mitchell↳ A. Read

36'

J. Andrews← G. Holohan

39'

Jamie Andrews

46'

K. Green← T. Mullarkey

52'

D. Wilson↳ K. Conteh

57'

J. Mingi← C. Cooper

57'

T. Dallison-Lisbon← Z. Mitchell

60'

Tom Dallison

64'

A. Read↳ J. Mingi

66'

Mandela Egbo

76'

N. Chilvers← S. Tovide

86'

T. Hopper← J. Taylor

89'

A. Gnahoua← K. Conteh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrimsbyColchester

Overview

60%Possession40%

18Total Shots9

3Corners3

11Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots9

6On Target4

4Off Target3

8Blocked2

13Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

472Total Passes332

331Accurate Passes193

70%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3