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Grimsby vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Colchester
Colchester
T. Hopper 32'
2/11/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 31Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Grimsby55%
×Draw23%
Colchester21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.77
Colchester
1.01

Grimsby creates 75% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.72
Colchester
1.21

allows per match

Grimsby
0.82
Colchester
1.81

finishing

Grimsby+0.20scores more
Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
79%
Grimsby or Colchester
77%
Draw or Colchester
45%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
31%
Colchester wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
83%
Grimsby 2+ goals
53%
Grimsby 3+ goals
26%
Colchester 1+ goals
64%
Colchester 2+ goals
27%
Colchester 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
72%
Colchester (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 12 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.72 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.77

Colchester attack 1.21 + Grimsby defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Grimsby scores more
55%
level
23%
Colchester scores more
21%

Grimsby at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
H. CliftonGrimsbyGrimsby · M
7.3

Match Events

23'
A. Read← C. Skuse
32'
T. Hopper↳ F. Kelleher
45'
Luke Waterfall
45+4'
Connor Wood
46'
D. Orsi← A. Hunt
65'
N. Chilvers← M. Jay
65'
K. Appiah← J. Akinde
75'
G. Holohan← J. Emmanuel
75'
M. O'Neil← B. Morris
75'
T. Dickson-Peters← G. Lloyd
75'
S. Wearne← J. McAtee
78'
Kieran O'Hara
80'
S. Tovide← T. Hopper

Possession

61%Grimsby

Shots

11Grimsby

Pass accuracy

57%Grimsby

Statistics

GrimsbyColchester
Overview
61%Possession39%
11Total Shots7
2Corners3
10Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots7
1On Target2
5Off Target4
5Blocked1
8Inside Box4
3Outside Box3
Passing
61%Possession39%
465Total Passes308
306Accurate Passes154
66%Pass Accuracy50%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Grimsby vs Colchester

Colchester beat Grimsby 1-0 in League Two on February 11, 2023.

Goals: T. Hopper (32').

Grimsby controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire.