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Grimsby vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
Preview
15:00
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
2/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 31Blundell Park
Big match
50%
Grimsby
model favours
50%26%24%

Grimsby sit 6, Cheltenham 18 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Grimsby50%
×Draw26%
Cheltenham24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.49
Cheltenham
0.95

Grimsby creates 57% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.62
Cheltenham
1.05

allows per match

Grimsby
0.85
Cheltenham
1.36

finishing

Grimsby+0.38scores more
Cheltenham-0.05on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
76%
Grimsby or Cheltenham
74%
Draw or Cheltenham
50%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
25%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
77%
Grimsby 2+ goals
44%
Grimsby 3+ goals
19%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
61%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
25%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
67%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Cheltenham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.49

Cheltenham attack 1.05 + Grimsby defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Grimsby scores more
50%
level
26%
Cheltenham scores more
24%

Grimsby at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
Cheltenham
Balanced
52%Possession48%
68%Pass accuracy65%
12.6Shots10.8
1.65xGBiggest gap1.08
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GrimsbyCheltenham

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

5
Grimsby
3
Draws
0
Cheltenham
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 63%
2–07–11–13–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grimsby
DDWLD
Cheltenham
WLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grimsby vs Cheltenham — Match Preview

Grimsby face Cheltenham on February 13, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Grimsby host Cheltenham at Blundell Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.