Grimsby 3–2 Cheltenham: Result & Stats | League Two

Grimsby

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Cheltenham

J. Davies 90+3', 44'

C. Vernam 51'

M. Taylor 82'

L. Young 61'

8/17/2024

League Two · Round 2Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Grimsby50%

×Draw26%

Cheltenham24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.95

Grimsby

1.49

Cheltenham

0.95

Grimsby creates 57% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.62

creates per match

1.05

0.85

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Grimsby

1.62

Cheltenham

1.05

allows per match

Grimsby

0.85

Cheltenham

1.36

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Grimsby+0.38scores more

Cheltenham-0.05on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

76%

Grimsby or Cheltenham

74%

Draw or Cheltenham

50%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

25%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

77%

Grimsby 2+ goals

44%

Grimsby 3+ goals

19%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

61%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

25%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

67%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Cheltenham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.49

Cheltenham attack 1.05 + Grimsby defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Grimsby scores more

50%

level

26%

Cheltenham scores more

24%

Grimsby at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Davies

Grimsby · M

8.3

Match Events

36'

38'

43'

44'

46'

46'

A. Jude-Boyd← L. Payne

51'

53'

54'

57'

61'

71'

74'

D. Hume← K. Green

74'

C. Ainley← L. Barrington

77'

Ryan Bowman

81'

J. Thomas← T. Pett

82'

M. Taylor↳ A. Jude-Boyd

90'

90+5'

90+5'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrimsbyCheltenham

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots8

9Corners5

18Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots8

6On Target2

2Off Target4

5Blocked2

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

307Total Passes343

204Accurate Passes233

66%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls13

1Yellow Cards6

1Offsides3