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Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
Preview
14:00
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
9/12/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Blundell Park
44%
Grimsby
model favours
44%27%29%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Grimsby44%
×Draw27%
Bristol Rovers29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.41
Bristol Rovers
1.09

Grimsby creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.62
Bristol Rovers
1.33

allows per match

Grimsby
0.85
Bristol Rovers
1.20

finishing

Grimsby+0.38scores more
Bristol Rovers-0.06on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
71%
Grimsby or Bristol Rovers
73%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
56%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
21%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
76%
Grimsby 2+ goals
41%
Grimsby 3+ goals
17%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
66%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
30%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
60%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bristol Rovers attack 1.33 + Grimsby defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grimsby scores more
44%
level
27%
Bristol Rovers scores more
29%

Grimsby at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Bristol Rovers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Style contrast — Grimsby play Attack-heavy, Bristol Rovers Defensively solid
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals
  • Bristol Rovers win just 26% against the top half (vs 65% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
52%Possession51%
68%Pass accuracy65%
12.6Shots11.7
1.65xGBiggest gap1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GrimsbyBristol Rovers

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Grimsby
1
Draws
3
Bristol Rovers
Avg goals: 1.5BTTS: 25%
1–30–10–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grimsby
DDWLD
Rovers
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers — Match Preview

Grimsby face Bristol Rovers on September 12, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Grimsby host Bristol Rovers at Blundell Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.