Bristol Rovers 3–1 Grimsby: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Grimsby

Y. Akhamrich 63'

J. Quigley 7'

K. Balmer 2'

A. Cook 38'

2/21/2026

League Two · Round 34Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Bristol Rovers31%

×Draw26%

Grimsby43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.44

Bristol Rovers

1.18

Grimsby

1.44

Grimsby creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.16

creates per match

1.67

1.21

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.16

Grimsby

1.67

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.21

Grimsby

1.20

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.51scores more

Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

57%

Bristol Rovers or Grimsby

74%

Draw or Grimsby

69%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

13%

Grimsby wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

69%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

33%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

12%

Grimsby 1+ goals

76%

Grimsby 2+ goals

42%

Grimsby 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

42%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.21 · 12 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.20 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.16 + Grimsby defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Grimsby attack 1.67 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

31%

level

26%

Grimsby scores more

43%

Grimsby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Akhamrich

Bristol Rovers · M

8.9

Match Events

2'

K. Balmer

7'

J. Quigley↳ Y. Akhamrich

38'

45+1'

51'

63'

66'

L. Thomas← K. Thompson-Sommers

66'

P. Omochere← J. Quigley

69'

D. Burns← C. McJannet

71'

Richard Smallwood

79'

G. D. Turi← K. Green

80'

J. Amaluzor← J. Walker

83'

F. Cavegn← E. Harrison

89'

T. Sellars-Fleming← C. Vernam

90'

M. Rijks← Y. Akhamrich

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolGrimsby

Overview

37%Possession63%

18Total Shots9

2.50Expected Goals (xG)1.39

5Corners4

18Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots9

3On Target6

5Off Target2

10Blocked1

11Inside Box8

7Outside Box1

Passing

37%Possession63%

246Total Passes422

155Accurate Passes309

63%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls13

3Yellow Cards0

4Offsides5