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Grimsby vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
5/8/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 46Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Grimsby36%
×Draw29%
AFC Wimbledon35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.15
AFC Wimbledon
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 158 home / 70 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.23
AFC Wimbledon
0.96

allows per match

Grimsby
1.30
AFC Wimbledon
1.07

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
65%
Grimsby or AFC Wimbledon
71%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
64%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
15%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
68%
Grimsby 2+ goals
32%
Grimsby 3+ goals
11%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
68%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
31%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
51%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 158 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.23 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Grimsby defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Grimsby scores more
36%
level
29%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
35%

Grimsby at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grimsby vs AFC Wimbledon

Grimsby beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 in League Two on May 8, 2023.

The match was played at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire.