Grimsby 0–2 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Grimsby

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Accrington ST

J. Andrews 82'

S. Whalley 74'

10/14/2023

League Two · Round 13Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Grimsby57%

×Draw24%

Accrington ST19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.85

Grimsby

1.69

Accrington ST

0.85

Grimsby creates 99% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.72

creates per match

0.88

0.82

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Grimsby

1.72

Accrington ST

0.88

allows per match

Grimsby

0.82

Accrington ST

1.66

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Grimsby+0.20scores more

Accrington ST-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

81%

Grimsby or Accrington ST

76%

Draw or Accrington ST

43%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

32%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

82%

Grimsby 2+ goals

50%

Grimsby 3+ goals

24%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

57%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

21%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

75%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 12 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.72 + Accrington ST defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.69

Accrington ST attack 0.88 + Grimsby defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Grimsby scores more

57%

level

24%

Accrington ST scores more

19%

Grimsby at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Andrews

Accrington ST · F

8.3

Match Events

17'

51'

60'

66'

70'

G. Holohan← J. Andrews

72'

72'

73'

74'

78'

R. Pyke← D. Rose

79'

D. Wilson← Abobaker Eisa

82'

J. Andrews↳ J. Nolan

83'

J. Gubbins← J. Rich-Baghuelou

88'

K. Mellor← M. Lowe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrimsbyAccrington

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots12

9Corners4

17Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots12

2On Target2

4Off Target6

5Blocked4

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

389Total Passes348

256Accurate Passes225

66%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1