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Accrington ST vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Grimsby
Grimsby
2/3/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 31Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Accrington ST41%
×Draw27%
Grimsby32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.35
Grimsby
1.17

Accrington ST creates 15% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 158 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.30
Grimsby
1.11

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.23
Grimsby
1.41

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
68%
Accrington ST or Grimsby
73%
Draw or Grimsby
59%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
19%
Grimsby wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
74%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
39%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
15%
Grimsby 1+ goals
69%
Grimsby 2+ goals
33%
Grimsby 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
56%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.30 + Grimsby defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Grimsby attack 1.11 + Accrington ST defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Accrington ST scores more
41%
level
27%
Grimsby scores more
32%

Accrington ST at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Accrington ST 0–0 Grimsby

Accrington ST and Grimsby drew 0-0 in League Two on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Wham Stadium in Accrington, Lancashire.