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GrIFK vs JPS — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2025

GrIFK
GrIFK
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
JPS
JPS
5/3/2025Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 3Kauniaisten Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

GrIFK79%
×Draw12%
JPS9%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GrIFK
3.56
JPS
1.23

GrIFK creates 189% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

GrIFK
2.67
JPS
0.78

allows per match

GrIFK
1.67
JPS
4.44

finishing

GrIFK+0.00on par
JPS+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GrIFK ↓

JPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

GrIFK or draw
91%
GrIFK or JPS
88%
Draw or JPS
21%

Winning margin

GrIFK wins by 2+
61%
JPS wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

GrIFK 1+ goals
97%
GrIFK 2+ goals
86%
GrIFK 3+ goals
67%
JPS 1+ goals
71%
JPS 2+ goals
35%
JPS 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

GrIFK (draw refunded)
89%
JPS (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GrIFK at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

JPS away — creates 0.78, concedes 4.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GrIFK attack 2.67 + JPS defence 4.44 → ÷2 → 3.56

JPS attack 0.78 + GrIFK defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

GrIFK scores more
79%
level
12%
JPS scores more
9%

GrIFK at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "GrIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GrIFK vs JPS

GrIFK beat JPS 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Kauniaisten Keskuskenttä in Grankulla.