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GrIFK vs JäPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

GrIFK
GrIFK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
JäPS II
JäPS II
4/21/2024Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 2Kauniaisten Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

GrIFK66%
×Draw18%
JäPS II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GrIFK
2.53
JäPS II
1.19

GrIFK creates 113% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

GrIFK
2.06
JäPS II
1.00

allows per match

GrIFK
1.39
JäPS II
3.00

finishing

GrIFK+0.00on par
JäPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GrIFK ↓

JäPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

GrIFK or draw
84%
GrIFK or JäPS II
82%
Draw or JäPS II
34%

Winning margin

GrIFK wins by 2+
44%
JäPS II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

GrIFK 1+ goals
92%
GrIFK 2+ goals
71%
GrIFK 3+ goals
46%
JäPS II 1+ goals
70%
JäPS II 2+ goals
33%
JäPS II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

GrIFK (draw refunded)
80%
JäPS II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GrIFK at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

JäPS II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GrIFK attack 2.06 + JäPS II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.53

JäPS II attack 1.00 + GrIFK defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

GrIFK scores more
66%
level
18%
JäPS II scores more
16%

GrIFK at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "GrIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GrIFK vs JäPS II

GrIFK beat JäPS II 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Kauniaisten Keskuskenttä in Grankulla.