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GrIFK vs I-Kissat — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

GrIFK
GrIFK
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
I-Kissat
I-Kissat
9/9/2023Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 18Kauniaisten Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

GrIFK45%
×Draw21%
I-Kissat34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GrIFK
2.13
I-Kissat
1.85

GrIFK creates 15% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 44 away

creates per match

GrIFK
1.89
I-Kissat
2.00

allows per match

GrIFK
1.70
I-Kissat
2.36

finishing

GrIFK+0.00on par
I-Kissat+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GrIFK ↓

I-Kissat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

GrIFK or draw
66%
GrIFK or I-Kissat
79%
Draw or I-Kissat
55%

Winning margin

GrIFK wins by 2+
26%
I-Kissat wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

GrIFK 1+ goals
88%
GrIFK 2+ goals
63%
GrIFK 3+ goals
35%
I-Kissat 1+ goals
84%
I-Kissat 2+ goals
55%
I-Kissat 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

GrIFK (draw refunded)
57%
I-Kissat (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GrIFK at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

I-Kissat away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GrIFK attack 1.89 + I-Kissat defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.13

I-Kissat attack 2.00 + GrIFK defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

GrIFK scores more
45%
level
21%
I-Kissat scores more
34%

GrIFK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "GrIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GrIFK 2 – 2 I-Kissat

GrIFK and I-Kissat drew 2-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Kauniaisten Keskuskenttä in Grankulla.