GrIFK 2–4 HJS Akatemia: Result & Stats

GrIFK

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

HJS Akatemia

A. Arrakoski 41'

M. Sorvali 38'

O. Lehtonen 90+1'

E. Raittinen 48', 26'

P. Mokuma 46'

5/22/2022

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 4Kauniaisten Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

GrIFK43%

×Draw23%

HJS Akatemia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrIFKExpected goals in this matchHJS Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.59

GrIFK

1.81

HJS Akatemia

1.59

GrIFK creates 14% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 80 away

1.87

creates per match

1.45

1.74

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

GrIFK

1.87

HJS Akatemia

1.45

allows per match

GrIFK

1.74

HJS Akatemia

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GrIFK+0.00on par

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GrIFK ↓

HJS Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

GrIFK or draw

66%

GrIFK or HJS Akatemia

77%

Draw or HJS Akatemia

57%

Winning margin

GrIFK wins by 2+

23%

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

GrIFK 1+ goals

84%

GrIFK 2+ goals

54%

GrIFK 3+ goals

27%

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals

80%

HJS Akatemia 2+ goals

47%

HJS Akatemia 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

GrIFK (draw refunded)

56%

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GrIFK at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

HJS Akatemia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GrIFK attack 1.87 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

HJS Akatemia attack 1.45 + GrIFK defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

GrIFK scores more

43%

level

23%

HJS Akatemia scores more

34%

GrIFK at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "GrIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

36'

38'

41'

46'

46'

48'

52'

N. Pulkkinen← J. Hormavirta

61'

P. Meyer← J. Törmänen

61'

V. Tiilikainen← M. Pyysalo

62'

M. Paussu← E. Pellikka

72'

M. Gaaid Abshir← T. Lähdesmäki

85'

H. Hellstén← A. Arrakoski

87'

O. Lehtonen← J. Thusberg

89'

L. Kesti

90+1'

O. Lehtonen

GrIFK

HJS

1

6

4

11

22

▼

Lähdesmäk

10

⚽

Mokuma

5

Kivinen

26

Supperi

16

▼

Pellikka

19

▼

Thusberg

9

⚽2

31

3

25

19

▼

Salo

21

▼

Hormavirt

10

▼

Törmänen

6

▼

Pyysalo

11

Khary

29

⚽

Sorvali

26

⚽

▼

Arrakoski

9

Langhoff

Manager: J. Mattfolk

46'▲S. Veijola←▼J. Salo

52'▲N. Pulkkinen←▼J. Hormavirta

61'▲P. Meyer←▼J. Törmänen

61'▲V. Tiilikainen←▼M. Pyysalo

85'▲H. Hellstén←▼A. Arrakoski

GrIFK substitutes

5Veijola20Pulkkinen17Meyer23Tiilikainen24Hellstén8Ilomäki12Lindeman

62'▲M. Paussu←▼E. Pellikka

72'▲M. Gaaid Abshir←▼T. Lähdesmäki

87'▲O. Lehtonen←▼J. Thusberg

HJS Akatemia substitutes

21Paussu8Abshir7Lehtonen13Paakkanen15Hakanen17Kajanto12Inkeroinen