Greuther Fürth U19 3–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Greuther Fürth U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

N. Höhn 50'

J. Hendricks 37'

P. Müller 10'

M. Hudalla 71'

9/26/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 5Charly-Mai-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1947%

×Draw21%

Stuttgarter K'rs U1931%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgarter K'rs U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.63

Greuther Fürth U19

2.03

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.63

Greuther Fürth U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 59 away

1.45

creates per match

1.27

1.98

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.45

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.27

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.98

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw

69%

Greuther Fürth U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

79%

Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

53%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

27%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

87%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

60%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

33%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

80%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

48%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.98 · 65 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.45 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.03

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.27 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

47%

level

21%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

31%

Greuther Fürth U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Greuther Fürth U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

37'

46'

46'

46'

L. Milutinovic← O. Keçeci

50'

N. Höhn

54'

M. Fries← V. Magdušauskas

56'

R. Terpsiadis← Y. Mallet

62'

B. Külpmann← L. Mrozek

65'

M. Hudalla← H. Eroğlu

70'

M. Hirschmann← N. Höhn

71'

M. Hudalla

Greuther

Stuttgarter

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Höhn

Näpflein

⚽

Hendricks

Manager: M. Ried

46'▲J. Simon←▼K. Ortius

54'▲M. Fries←▼V. Magdušauskas

62'▲B. Külpmann←▼L. Mrozek

70'▲M. Hirschmann←▼N. Höhn

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

SimonFriesKülpmannHirschmannBöhnkeGötzelmann

Manager: M. Ünal

46'▲A. Babic←▼L. Biemel

46'▲L. Milutinovic←▼O. Keçeci

56'▲R. Terpsiadis←▼Y. Mallet

65'▲M. Hudalla←▼H. Eroğlu

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

BabicMilutinovicTerpsiadisHudallaSanozidisKriegerRoth

U19 Bundesliga: Greuther Fürth U19 3–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Greuther Fürth U19 beat Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 26, 2021.

Goals: P. Müller (10'), J. Hendricks (37'), N. Höhn (50'), M. Hudalla (71').

The match was played at Charly-Mai-Sportanlage in Fürth.

Greuther Fürth U19 vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Greuther Fürth U19 3–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19