Greuther Fürth U19 1–2 Saarbrücken U19

Greuther Fürth U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Saarbrücken U19

D. Angleberger 89'

S. Maas 60'

T. Wachall 50'

2/5/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 13Kunstrasenplatz Sportanlage Fürth Kronacher Str. 177

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1952%

×Draw21%

Saarbrücken U1928%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.58

Greuther Fürth U19

2.21

Saarbrücken U19

1.58

Greuther Fürth U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 37 away

1.45

creates per match

1.19

1.98

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.45

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.98

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw

72%

Greuther Fürth U19 or Saarbrücken U19

79%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

48%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

31%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

89%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

65%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

38%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

79%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

47%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.98 · 65 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.45 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.21

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

52%

level

21%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

28%

Greuther Fürth U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Greuther Fürth U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

O. Fobassam

46'

L. Mrozek← P. Müller

50'

T. Wachall

60'

N. Grimbs← M. Hirschmann

60'

S. Maas

64'

V. Magdušauskas← P. Götzelmann

69'

J. Magar← I. Smith

77'

A. Lazzano← D. Cullmann

78'

J. Hendricks← M. Fries

84'

F. Geißler← S. Maas

89'

D. Angleberger

90+2'

L. Weis← T. Wachall

Greuther

Saarbrücken

⚽

▼

Maas

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Hilbert

46'▲L. Mrozek←▼P. Müller

60'▲N. Grimbs←▼M. Hirschmann

64'▲V. Magdušauskas←▼P. Götzelmann

78'▲J. Hendricks←▼M. Fries

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

MrozekGrimbsMagdušauskasHendricksSchlickeNäpfleinBöhnke

Manager: E. Melunovic

69'▲J. Magar←▼I. Smith

77'▲A. Lazzano←▼D. Cullmann

84'▲F. Geißler←▼S. Maas

90+2'▲L. Weis←▼T. Wachall

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

MagarLazzanoGeißlerWeisDupréWeberFlausse

Match Recap: Greuther Fürth U19 vs Saarbrücken U19

Saarbrücken U19 beat Greuther Fürth U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 5, 2022.

Goals: T. Wachall (50'), S. Maas (60'), D. Angleberger (89').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Sportanlage Fürth Kronacher Str. 177 in Fürth.

Greuther Fürth U19 vs Saarbrücken U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Greuther Fürth U19 vs Saarbrücken U19